Strange Bedfellows
Today is one of those days when everyone is Irish. Happy St. Paddy’s Day to everyone out there, bye the bye.
When you grow up in a city that has a deeply Irish-American culture like Chicago, even someone who is only a quarter Irish (like me) takes on a ton of Irish pride not only today, but also on the other 364 days of the year. Yes, we have multiple parades for St. Paddy’s and dye the river green every year. Most bars carry Guinness. There are even hurling leagues and teams. It’s an Irish sport, look it up.
With all the Irish pride in places like Chicago, Boston, New York, etc., you also get a hand-me-down, and almost completely irrational, hate for anything English. Some of us are old enough to remember the tail end of the IRA, Sinn Fein, and Belfast bombings. We’ve seen it glorified in movies like Michael Collins and Patriot Games. Some of us even took the time to read about Irish history to really understand where it all came from. For the military professionals, studying Northern Ireland as part of our counterinsurgency education was very common.
What most people don’t know, or don’t think about, is that fierce Irish independence has put them at risk for a long time. The island itself is strategically vulnerable. Sitting on the Atlantic with zero geographical protection, a stable but not booming economy, and an ever-shrinking military is risky by itself.
Being constantly at odds with your nearest neighbor certainly doesn’t help. Keeping yourself out of NATO is an interesting political position, but when you cannot afford to protect yourself, it isn’t necessarily smart.
So, what does Ireland do?
Publicly, they remain Ireland. Loud and adamant about who they are and how independent they are. And “to hell with the English!” Ireland has maintained a position of neutrality going back to WWII. They are members of the UN and have participated in some UN operations.
The entire military of Ireland is comprised of about 10k people. They have six small patrol ships and eight turbo-prop aircraft as well as about 7,500 active and reserve soldiers in their Army. The Irish military is a Defense Force. Period.
Did I mention “to hell with the English!”?
Do you know what Ireland doesn’t have? Radar. Do you know what else Ireland doesn’t have? Jet fighters. When you are an island sitting at the edge of the Atlantic, you really need radar. And you really need fighter jets available to respond to threats coming from the ocean. Those little turbo-prop planes with guns and rockets aren’t going to do much against modern fighters. And without early warning, they likely would get destroyed before they got off the ground anyway.
Do you know who does have radar and jet fighters? England. In fact, England is part of the NATO integrated radar and air defense network that spans throughout and protects Europe.
Do you know who has had a very quiet agreement with the UK for radar and fighter jet coverage since 1998? Yeah, Ireland. Of course, this agreement benefits the UK and the rest of Europe as well. Ireland with its geography and miniscule military have made the Emerald Isle the “most vulnerable” country in Europe according to defense experts. Whether they are a virtual speedbump or not, pulling Ireland under the protective umbrella of NATO and the UK makes strategic sense regarding potential attack from the Atlantic.
Did I mention “to hell with the English!”?
But now, Ireland is going to spend about $3B over the next 20-25 years on a dozen or so modern (4th generation) fighters of their own. Add that to a $400M purchase back in 2022 for a radar system expected to be operational in 2028, and Ireland is on their way to securing themselves.
But are they?
With 12-14 aircraft (think F-16 or a like aircraft) they will need some for initial pilot training. Call it two to begin with. You can assume with any military aircraft that two will be in a maintenance status at any given time. Probably more like four but let’s give them the benefit of the doubt. Now we are down to eight or ten aircraft. If you’re planning for serious defense, you probably have at least two loaded for aerial combat and on “alert” at any given time.
Do you see where I am going with this? Ireland is quickly running out of planes.
Don’t get me wrong, I admire Ireland for doing this. The fact they are making a historically massive financial investment in their defense is a big commitment. And good for them for doing it. But, does that mean they can’t or won’t be relying on the UK or NATO after 2028? Or will they be integrated into the NATO defense structure while maintaining their “neutrality” and independence from NATO? What makes sense for NATO?
My guess is Ireland will continue a partnership with the UK and NATO but will have more skin in the game. The Irish will be able to say even louder “to hell with the English!”, while still quietly benefitting from their defense relationship. Ireland will maintain its non-NATO status, its long-lasting position of neutrality, and its membership to the United Nations while much of its population talks shit about those that provide them the most strategic protection.
And you’ll still have Irish-Americans celebrating St. Paddy’s Day, having parades, spilling pints of Guinness, and yelling “to hell with the English!”
Global defense sure makes some Strange Bedfellows.