Missed it by that much…
The Army missed their recruiting goals by 15,000 this year. That’s 25%. It is the worst recruiting miss since the draft was ended and we switched to an all-volunteer force. The other three services all made their goal, but they are going to pay the price in 2023. Let me explain.
Recruiters and recruiting commands are given a goal for a fiscal year. Once they hit their goal, they will often encourage or allow new servicemembers to enter on delayed entry. In short, sign up now and start later. Those delayed entry servicemembers will often count for the next year’s recruiting goals. Most years, services will enter the new fiscal year “ahead” by already having a number of folks signed up and waiting to go. The Navy, Air Force, and Marines ALL had to dip into their delayed entry pool to meet their goals for 2022, which means they aren’t starting 2023 as far ahead as they normally do.
Historically, when the US economy sucks, recruiters are having an easy time getting people to sign up. Guaranteed job for 3 or 4 years. Food. Housing. Medical care. GI Bill for college after. Learn a skill while you serve. When the economy is bad, those things make the military an easy sell. Or at least an easier sell. So, why did we miss in 2022?
I’ve heard people, especially Conservatives, say it is because the military is going “woke”. I call bullshit. New recruits barely know what those policies mean to them, so I highly doubt that is a contributing factor. Whether it hurts retention (re-enlistment) of currently serving members or not is a different discussion, but I believe it has very, very little to do with new recruits.
I’ve heard people, also Conservatives, say it is because of the Student Loan Forgiveness recently passed by the administration. I call bullshit on this too. That was passed about a month ago, even though it has been talked about since the election, so nothing was concrete until now. The idea that people didn’t enlist for GI Bill college tuition due to loan forgiveness just enacted doesn’t add up. What about the OTHER eleven months of the year, before it was passed? You don’t miss your mark by 25% because of one month.
I’ve heard people, also Conservatives, say it is because of ObamaCare and the free healthcare options available. Let me tell you, 19 year old kids don’t care about free healthcare in most cases. I sat through Union negotiations in my previous job and it when we talked about providing multiple healthcare options, the younger crowd ALWAYS picked the cheapest which provided the least coverage. Why? Because for most of them, healthcare is not a real concern. I call bullshit on this, too.
So, what is keeping these kids from enlisting? It’s a few things. First, the estimate is that only 23% of the population that can actually enlist meet the bare minimum requirements. Yep. American youth is generally fat and out of shape or they have a medical condition that precludes them from serving. Or, they have a criminal record. Regardless, 77% of America’s young men and women cannot serve. That makes recruiting difficult from the beginning.
Second, there are a LOT of schools out there that do not allow recruiters to come in and talk to students. Public schools. Funded by the government and your tax dollars do not allow recruiters to come into the school. When you cannot actively recruit, en masse, the largest portion of the recruiting population, you are restricted to waiting for them to come to you OR basically going door to door. That makes recruiting difficult because it is wildly inefficient.
Third, the pay sucks. Let’s be honest. Even with housing and food allocations, especially for married servicemembers, it isn’t enough at the lowest ranks. It has been said, IN PUBLIC, by the highest levels of the military that our youngest servicemembers may need to consider going on food stamps if they have a family. Appalling. Bordering on criminal. Pay scales for the military are public record. You can see what these kids are making. It’s ridiculous to pay them what we do and then ask them to risk their asses for it. Please remember that when you say “I support the troops” and in the same breath complain about defense spending.
Lastly, is social media. It doesn’t take much to find a TON of sites, pages, and postings about life in the military. Many of them are negative and most of them are from currently serving individuals or veterans. Is there a lot of stupid shit that happens in the military? Of course there is. Does life suck in the military? At times, yes. Always? No way. Are those some of the best bonding times and most memorable experiences of my life? You bet they were. Unfortunately, people post immediate reactions (This SUCKS!) or memories (That SUCKED!) and are taken out of context by the young kids watching it on YouTube, TikTok, and any other social media out there. There are the “good” parts on social media. These are good because they are true and bring visibility to some really terrible things. Mold and terrible plumbing in the barracks. Command Teams and command climates that are legitimately terrible. Those types of postings are good for those in uniform because they bring attention to some terrible conditions, but they suck for recruiters. I can’t imagine being a recruiter and having to refute something a kid shows you on their phone, especially when it is true.
Regardless of all this, our military is in danger. When we cannot meet our recruiting goals in a military that is 100% dependent on volunteers, that puts us at risk. It forces us to rethink our foreign policy. What can we do or not do? What missions can we accomplish or not? How much do we need to rely on the National Guard and Reserves to accomplish those missions? Those are the questions we need to ask. Those are the impacts of not meeting recruiting goals.
As I said, we are going to start 2023 at a deficit in recruiting. 2022 is bad, but 2023 is going to be much tougher.
Our military, our Nation, cannot afford to miss this goal again.